Markets stabilized in recent weeks as forecasts for 2012/13 balances of AMIS crops became more definite. Given the overall tightness for wheat, maize and soybeans, the focus is shifting to the influence of weather on crop prospects for 2013. Drought affecting winter wheat in the US and unfavourable weather in parts of Europe and South America, have raised concerns, although it is not possible to draw any firm conclusions at this early stage.
Utilization in 2012/13 down from 2011/12 with lower feed use in China and the EU more than offsetting higher feed use in the US.
Trade contracting sharply on reduced import demand from North Africa and Asia. The forecast increased from November on higher imports by CIS countries.
Stocks (ending 2013) declining significantly, with a further cut in the forecast because of lower inventories in China and India.
Maize production in 2012 to decline from 2011, driven by a sharp reduction in the US output. The forecast further downgraded since November on reduced outputs in Russia and Ukraine.
Utilization in 2012/13 contracting, driven by a decline in the industrial use of maize, especially for production of ethanol in the US.
Trade falling below the previous season’s level, driven by shrinking exportable supplies and elevated international prices.
Stocks (ending in 2013) down from the previous season, mainly on reductions in the EU and the US.
Rice production in 2012 revised up since November, buoyed by improved crop prospects in Indonesia, Mali and Nigeria.
Utilization in 2012/13 raised, now pointing to larger expansion from the previous season.
Trade in 2013 exceeding the record in 2012. Higher exports from India boosted trade in 2012 with larger purchases by China and Nigeria.
Stocks (ending in 2013) to climb to record levels.
Soybean production raised slightly as better than anticipated yields in the US outweighed downward corrections for Argentina.
Utilization in 2012/13 to increase only slightly from the previous season, as high prices and weak economic growth constrain soy meal/oil demand.
Trade raised slightly since November, mainly reflecting larger export availabilities in the US.
Stocks (ending 2013) to recover partially from their low opening levels.