China data puts brakes on grain price rally

What could take the steam out of the rally in grain and oilseed prices?

One needle to deflate prices again would be a change for cooler in the US weather outlook, whose turn hotter has been the driving force behind the rally which has driven corn prices up 4.0%, soybean prices up 3.9%, and wheat prices up 2.8%, for Chicago's best-traded contracts.

However, there was no change on the weather score, with WxRisk.com saying that the European weather model, in its latest run, "has followed the GFS model in showing a hotter pattern for the Midwest all next week.

"The European builds a heat dome into the central and upper Plains and western Corn Belt by this weekend into early next week," the weather service said.

"Temperatures warm significantly in these areas."

Chinese data

What did tempt a little profit-taking, however, was some poor Chinese trade data which took the wind out of the sails of many markets.

China's exports fell 3.1% last month from June 2012, the first year on year decline for 17 months, and the biggest since October 2009.

Imports fell too, for a second successive month, this time by 0.7%, following the 0.3% drop in May.

The data were the latest in a series, from bank lending to manufacturing activity, to indicate economic weakness, sparking ideas that China may for the first time in 15 years miss its growth target of 7.5%.

Soybean imports

China's fate is close to the heart of investors of many commodities, of which the country is a huge importer.

Copper, particularly sensitive to the fate of the Chinese economy, was among raw materials to show early losses.

But Wednesday's data were hardly that positive for soybeans either, of which China is the top importer.

Sure, June imports climbed to a record high of 6.93m tonnes, from 5.1m tonnes in May, customs data showed.

But many analysts had expected a figure beginning with a 7, and Oil World forecast imports above 8.0m tonnes.

'More upside follow-through'

That helped put the brakes on a rally which, in theory, could have a lot further to run.

"The two-day advance in December corn and November soybeans is rather tepid versus summer rallies in recent years," Richard Feltes at RJ O'Brien said.

"Monday's December corn close is $0.80-2.80 a bushel below recent year summer highs for December contracts," with the shortfall for November soybeans at $0.50-5.25 a bushel.

"The take home point here is that current row crop rally is young enough and meagre enough to garner more upside follow-through - especially if technical buying accelerates on perceived erosion in new crop yield potential," Mr Feltes said, if also highlighting potential setbacks from Chinese weakness and the shift by funds from equities to commodities.

Data ahead

An extra reason for a pause in the rally is the prospect on Thursday of a monthly US Department of Agriculture Wasde report, the flagship briefing giving data on world crop supply and demand, which often spurs position closing.

"With the Wasde report on Thursday, the day session on Wednesday may be more of a back-and-fill event as trade squares positions," Benson Quinn Commodities said.

In fact, traders are expecting a small downward revision to the estimate for all-important US corn stocks at the close of 2013-14, by some 50m bushels to 1.90bn bushels, reflecting a lower yield forecast, with forecasts for the soybean inventory figure seen stable at about 265m bushels.

For wheat, stocks are seen falling 17m tonnes to 632m tonnes.

Price rises slow


Still, uncertainty over what will actually be achieved helped curtail the rise in December corn to 0.1% as of 07:30 UK time (01:30 Chicago time), taking it to $5.22 ½ a bushel.

For soybeans, the heat is not so critical as for corn, for which pollination is a heat-sensitive process, as 2012 showed, although soybeans have been getting an extra boost from concerns that a delayed Midwest soft red winter wheat harvest will deplete plantings of double crop.

Farmers have intended to plant 10% of their soybeans as double crop – sown as a follow-on on land vacated by the winter wheat harvest – the highest proportion in at least 15 years, and equivalent to 7.8m acres.

Still, Chicago's November lot eased 0.25 cents to $12.76 a bushel.

Chinese import surge?


For wheat itself, Chicago's September contract eased 0.1% to $6.77 a bushel, and this despite the crop being relatively immune to the disappointing Chinese import data, with the country having lined up a stack of purchases for 2013-14 already following a disappointing domestic harvest.

"The USDA has Chinese wheat imports pegged at 3.5m tonnes of wheat imports, which they have purchased," Brian Henry at Benson Quinn Commodities said.

"Some private firms are talking upwards of 8m-10m tonnes, which merits the attention of short position holders around the globe."

Short position holders are a particular factor in grain markets at the moment, given a turn bearish by hedge funds in the week to July 2 to a record degree in Chicago wheat futures and options, and leaving them with a rare net short in corn.

The V word

Furthermore, the delays to the US soft red winter wheat harvest – caused by the same moisture which boosted hopes for row crops – has sparked some concerns over quality, bringing mention of the dreaded V word.

"Potential quality issues in areas the soft red winter wheat harvest has been delayed is offering some anecdotal support," Mr Henry.

"These concerns typically focus on some sprout damage and vomitoxin has been mentioned," vomitoxin being a poisonous fungal residue which can render grain unfit even for feed.

However, the US heat issue is not nearly so serious for wheat, of which much is in the barn, and with many spring wheat crops in areas of high soil moisture which might welcome warmer temperatures – unlike corn, for which heat can spell poor pollination.

Two-year low


Chinese trade data were not the only statistics to concern crop-watchers on Wednesday, with the Malaysian Palm Oil Board too unveiling data on domestic palm oil stocks, which in June fell 9.4% month on month to 1.65m tonnes.

This was the lowest figure since March 2011, and far smaller than the 1.74m tonnes that investors had expected.

The decline reflected smaller-than-expected production, at 1.42m tonnes, and imports, which offset the impact of disappointing export statistics too, at 1.41m tonnes.

The data came during the lunchtime break in Kuala Lumpur, which palm oil for September entered down 0.6% at 2,383 ringgit a tonne.

 

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